Base Rates by Pre-Breakout Signal
For each pre-breakout signal, we publish the measured share of signal-holding stocks that reached +15% within 20 trading days — compared against the base rate of the entire liquid universe, not just the stocks the scanner selected. Past statistics do not guarantee future results and this is not investment advice.
Common stocks only (warrants, units, rights, preferred shares, and debt securities excluded — historical data included from 2026-10-30).
How to read this table
- Signal — a pre-breakout condition/pattern. Click the name for its explainer.
- Sample — number of past cases (episodes) where this signal appeared. More cases = more reliable · fewer than 100 is greyed out (reference only).
- Hit Rate w/ Signal — of the cases where the signal fired, the share that reached +15% within 20 trading days. Higher = surges followed that signal more often.
- Base Rate — the average share of all stocks reaching the same +15% regardless of signal = the benchmark. The hit rate must beat this to matter.
- Lift — Hit Rate − Base Rate. +green = observed above the benchmark in this sample, −red = observed below the benchmark in this sample. A difference observed in this sample — not a claim about future predictive power or profitability.
- 95% CI Lower — the lower end of an interval estimate under the stated model and sample conditions, not a guaranteed minimum or proof of predictive power. Must exceed the base rate to stand apart from chance.
- Significance — whether the difference observed in this sample is unlikely to be chance. ✓Wilson = CI lower bound exceeds the base rate · ✓BH = still significant after multiple-comparison correction · neither (—) = indistinguishable from chance. Not a claim that the same difference will recur, or that it is profitable.
| Signal | Sample | Hit Rate w/ Signal | Base Rate | Lift | 95% CI Lower | Significance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg Daily Range 4%+ | 6,912 | 42.2% | 24.8% | +17.5%p | 41.1% | ✓Wilson ✓BH |
More statistics
|
||||||
| 20-Day High Gap Breakout | 285 | 38.6% | 24.8% | +13.8%p | 33.1% | ✓Wilson ✓BH |
More statistics
|
||||||
| 50-Day High Gap Breakout | 185 | 37.8% | 24.8% | +13.1%p | 31.2% | ✓Wilson ✓BH |
More statistics
|
||||||
| Low-Volume Rally | 600 | 36.8% | 24.8% | +12.1%p | 33.1% | ✓Wilson ✓BH |
More statistics
|
||||||
| Short Interest 20%+ | 10 ⚠low sample | 30.0% | 18.5% | +11.5%p | 10.8% | — |
More statistics
|
||||||
| Relative Strength +8pp (20D) | 5,337 | 31.8% | 24.8% | +7.0%p | 30.5% | ✓Wilson ✓BH |
More statistics
|
||||||
| Record Volume Held | 228 | 31.6% | 24.8% | +6.8%p | 25.9% | ✓Wilson ✓BH |
More statistics
|
||||||
| RSI Bullish Divergence | 1,030 | 31.1% | 24.8% | +6.3%p | 28.3% | ✓Wilson ✓BH |
More statistics
|
||||||
| Pocket Pivot | 2,156 | 30.8% | 24.8% | +6.0%p | 28.9% | ✓Wilson ✓BH |
More statistics
|
||||||
| RS Line 52-Week High | 245 | 28.2% | 24.8% | +3.4%p | 22.9% | — |
More statistics
|
||||||
| Days-to-Cover 5+ Days | 53 ⚠low sample | 20.8% | 18.5% | +2.2%p | 12.0% | — |
More statistics
|
||||||
| Stochastic Oversold Reversal | 2,981 | 27.0% | 24.8% | +2.2%p | 25.4% | ✓Wilson ✓BH |
More statistics
|
||||||
| Analyst Upgrade (30D) | 26 ⚠low sample | 19.2% | 17.4% | +1.8%p | 8.5% | — |
More statistics
|
||||||
| No Dilution Filing (90D) | 153 | 18.3% | 17.5% | +0.8%p | 13.0% | — |
More statistics
|
||||||
| OBV Accumulation | 9,116 | 24.8% | 24.8% | +0.1%p | 23.9% | — |
More statistics
|
||||||
| +DI Dominance | 12,851 | 24.6% | 24.8% | -0.2%p | 23.9% | — |
More statistics
|
||||||
| ADX Trend Strengthening | 11,457 | 24.5% | 24.8% | -0.3%p | 23.7% | — |
More statistics
|
||||||
| Off-Exchange Short 40%+ | 11,601 | 24.3% | 24.8% | -0.5%p | 23.5% | — |
More statistics
|
||||||
| Top 10% Dollar Volume | 1,321 | 24.0% | 24.8% | -0.8%p | 21.8% | — |
More statistics
|
||||||
| Off-Exchange Short 50%+ | 8,596 | 23.8% | 24.8% | -1.0%p | 22.9% | — |
More statistics
|
||||||
| Leading Sector Membership | 25 ⚠low sample | 16.0% | 17.7% | -1.7%p | 6.4% | — |
More statistics
|
||||||
| Bollinger Band Squeeze | 7,349 | 22.5% | 24.8% | -2.2%p | 21.6% | — |
More statistics
|
||||||
| Weekly Squeeze | 8,589 | 22.3% | 24.8% | -2.5%p | 21.4% | — |
More statistics
|
||||||
| Institutional Ownership 50%+ | 104 | 15.4% | 18.5% | -3.1%p | 9.7% | — |
More statistics
|
||||||
| Daily Short Volume 40%+ | 117 | 14.5% | 17.9% | -3.4%p | 9.3% | — |
More statistics
|
||||||
| Insider Purchase Recorded (90D) | 28 ⚠low sample | 10.7% | 17.4% | -6.7%p | 3.7% | — |
More statistics
|
||||||
| Stage 2 Trend Template | 3,796 | 14.8% | 24.8% | -9.9%p | 13.7% | — |
More statistics
|
||||||
| 3+ Day Signal Streak | 3,734 | 14.0% | 24.8% | -10.8%p | 12.9% | — |
More statistics
|
||||||
| Volume Spike, Flat Price | 605 | 13.1% | 24.8% | -11.7%p | 10.6% | — |
More statistics
|
||||||
| Chinese ADR | 3 ⚠low sample | 0.0% | 16.3% | -16.3%p | 0.0% | — |
More statistics
|
||||||
| Weekly Tight Base 3+ Weeks | 3,359 | 1.4% | 24.8% | -23.4%p | 1.1% | — |
More statistics
|
||||||
Methodology
- Denominator = the entire liquid universe (price ≥ $0.5, daily dollar volume ≥ $500K) — not just scanner picks
- Hit = entry-bar close to highest price within the next 20 trading days reaching +15% (uses intraday highs vs. a closing entry price, so it may differ from an actual fill)
- Consecutive signals on the same stock are counted once per episode (21-day window — removes duplicate observations)
- Delisted stocks are included (avoids survivorship bias) · Wilson 95% confidence intervals + Benjamini-Hochberg (FDR) multiple-comparison correction
- Sample sizes differ by signal because collection start dates differ · past statistics do not guarantee future results · not investment advice
Signal-Search Program Conclusion (as of 2026-09-05)
Over 1 year 4 months and 14,260 episodes, we tested 50 signals and adopted zero. Our last hypothesis, a market-regime gate, reached a sample of 159 (risk-on) and 58 (neutral), but the 95% confidence interval contained the expected hit rate in both cases — statistically indistinguishable from chance. We publish this conclusion, the statistical-power math behind it, and why we keep running the scanner anyway in We Tested 50 Signals and Adopted Zero — Ending the Search.