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ℹ️ Performance figures correction completed (2026-10-01) — We identified a calculation path where the price basis could be inconsistent across corporate actions (splits, mergers) and dividends. We corrected the calculation code on 2026-09-24, and on 2026-10-01 we recalculated everything on the new basis, including finished historical records and the base-rate statistics. All aggregates below now use the same basis. The largest change is average maximum gain: the old-basis published figure of 52.0% is 22.0% on the new basis (most of that was already reflected by the 2026-09-24 code fix). Across this full correction the hit rate rose from 27.8% to 28.7% and the average 20-day return from 0.6% to 1.1%, a move in our favour, while the universe base rate stayed at 25.8%. On the other side, the 'Record Volume Held' signal lost its significance after multiple-comparison correction (31.9% to 31.1%). The correction runs in both directions: some tickers were inflated and others understated. Records whose entry basis could not be verified, and 4 picks with corporate actions we could not judge, were excluded from the aggregates; two of those four would flip from hit to miss once corrected, so that exclusion works in our favour.
Measured Statistics

Base Rates by Pre-Breakout Signal

For each pre-breakout signal, we publish the measured share of signal-holding stocks that reached +15% within 20 trading days — compared against the base rate of the entire liquid universe, not just the stocks the scanner selected. Past statistics do not guarantee future results and this is not investment advice.

Common stocks only (warrants, units, rights, preferred shares, and debt securities excluded — historical data included from 2026-10-30).

Full-universe base rate24.8%(based on 24,200 matured episodes)
How to read this table
  • Signal — a pre-breakout condition/pattern. Click the name for its explainer.
  • Sample — number of past cases (episodes) where this signal appeared. More cases = more reliable · fewer than 100 is greyed out (reference only).
  • Hit Rate w/ Signal — of the cases where the signal fired, the share that reached +15% within 20 trading days. Higher = surges followed that signal more often.
  • Base Rate — the average share of all stocks reaching the same +15% regardless of signal = the benchmark. The hit rate must beat this to matter.
  • Lift — Hit Rate − Base Rate. +green = observed above the benchmark in this sample, −red = observed below the benchmark in this sample. A difference observed in this sample — not a claim about future predictive power or profitability.
  • 95% CI Lower — the lower end of an interval estimate under the stated model and sample conditions, not a guaranteed minimum or proof of predictive power. Must exceed the base rate to stand apart from chance.
  • Significance — whether the difference observed in this sample is unlikely to be chance. ✓Wilson = CI lower bound exceeds the base rate · ✓BH = still significant after multiple-comparison correction · neither (—) = indistinguishable from chance. Not a claim that the same difference will recur, or that it is profitable.
Signal Sample Hit Rate w/ Signal Base Rate Lift 95% CI Lower Significance
Avg Daily Range 4%+ 6,912 42.2% 24.8% +17.5%p 41.1% ✓Wilson ✓BH
More statistics
Base Rate
24.8%
Lift
+17.5%p
95% CI Lower
41.1%
Significance
✓Wilson ✓BH
20-Day High Gap Breakout 285 38.6% 24.8% +13.8%p 33.1% ✓Wilson ✓BH
More statistics
Base Rate
24.8%
Lift
+13.8%p
95% CI Lower
33.1%
Significance
✓Wilson ✓BH
50-Day High Gap Breakout 185 37.8% 24.8% +13.1%p 31.2% ✓Wilson ✓BH
More statistics
Base Rate
24.8%
Lift
+13.1%p
95% CI Lower
31.2%
Significance
✓Wilson ✓BH
Low-Volume Rally 600 36.8% 24.8% +12.1%p 33.1% ✓Wilson ✓BH
More statistics
Base Rate
24.8%
Lift
+12.1%p
95% CI Lower
33.1%
Significance
✓Wilson ✓BH
Short Interest 20%+ 10 ⚠low sample 30.0% 18.5% +11.5%p 10.8% —
More statistics
Base Rate
18.5%
Lift
+11.5%p
95% CI Lower
10.8%
Significance
—
Relative Strength +8pp (20D) 5,337 31.8% 24.8% +7.0%p 30.5% ✓Wilson ✓BH
More statistics
Base Rate
24.8%
Lift
+7.0%p
95% CI Lower
30.5%
Significance
✓Wilson ✓BH
Record Volume Held 228 31.6% 24.8% +6.8%p 25.9% ✓Wilson ✓BH
More statistics
Base Rate
24.8%
Lift
+6.8%p
95% CI Lower
25.9%
Significance
✓Wilson ✓BH
RSI Bullish Divergence 1,030 31.1% 24.8% +6.3%p 28.3% ✓Wilson ✓BH
More statistics
Base Rate
24.8%
Lift
+6.3%p
95% CI Lower
28.3%
Significance
✓Wilson ✓BH
Pocket Pivot 2,156 30.8% 24.8% +6.0%p 28.9% ✓Wilson ✓BH
More statistics
Base Rate
24.8%
Lift
+6.0%p
95% CI Lower
28.9%
Significance
✓Wilson ✓BH
RS Line 52-Week High 245 28.2% 24.8% +3.4%p 22.9% —
More statistics
Base Rate
24.8%
Lift
+3.4%p
95% CI Lower
22.9%
Significance
—
Days-to-Cover 5+ Days 53 ⚠low sample 20.8% 18.5% +2.2%p 12.0% —
More statistics
Base Rate
18.5%
Lift
+2.2%p
95% CI Lower
12.0%
Significance
—
Stochastic Oversold Reversal 2,981 27.0% 24.8% +2.2%p 25.4% ✓Wilson ✓BH
More statistics
Base Rate
24.8%
Lift
+2.2%p
95% CI Lower
25.4%
Significance
✓Wilson ✓BH
Analyst Upgrade (30D) 26 ⚠low sample 19.2% 17.4% +1.8%p 8.5% —
More statistics
Base Rate
17.4%
Lift
+1.8%p
95% CI Lower
8.5%
Significance
—
No Dilution Filing (90D) 153 18.3% 17.5% +0.8%p 13.0% —
More statistics
Base Rate
17.5%
Lift
+0.8%p
95% CI Lower
13.0%
Significance
—
OBV Accumulation 9,116 24.8% 24.8% +0.1%p 23.9% —
More statistics
Base Rate
24.8%
Lift
+0.1%p
95% CI Lower
23.9%
Significance
—
+DI Dominance 12,851 24.6% 24.8% -0.2%p 23.9% —
More statistics
Base Rate
24.8%
Lift
-0.2%p
95% CI Lower
23.9%
Significance
—
ADX Trend Strengthening 11,457 24.5% 24.8% -0.3%p 23.7% —
More statistics
Base Rate
24.8%
Lift
-0.3%p
95% CI Lower
23.7%
Significance
—
Off-Exchange Short 40%+ 11,601 24.3% 24.8% -0.5%p 23.5% —
More statistics
Base Rate
24.8%
Lift
-0.5%p
95% CI Lower
23.5%
Significance
—
Top 10% Dollar Volume 1,321 24.0% 24.8% -0.8%p 21.8% —
More statistics
Base Rate
24.8%
Lift
-0.8%p
95% CI Lower
21.8%
Significance
—
Off-Exchange Short 50%+ 8,596 23.8% 24.8% -1.0%p 22.9% —
More statistics
Base Rate
24.8%
Lift
-1.0%p
95% CI Lower
22.9%
Significance
—
Leading Sector Membership 25 ⚠low sample 16.0% 17.7% -1.7%p 6.4% —
More statistics
Base Rate
17.7%
Lift
-1.7%p
95% CI Lower
6.4%
Significance
—
Bollinger Band Squeeze 7,349 22.5% 24.8% -2.2%p 21.6% —
More statistics
Base Rate
24.8%
Lift
-2.2%p
95% CI Lower
21.6%
Significance
—
Weekly Squeeze 8,589 22.3% 24.8% -2.5%p 21.4% —
More statistics
Base Rate
24.8%
Lift
-2.5%p
95% CI Lower
21.4%
Significance
—
Institutional Ownership 50%+ 104 15.4% 18.5% -3.1%p 9.7% —
More statistics
Base Rate
18.5%
Lift
-3.1%p
95% CI Lower
9.7%
Significance
—
Daily Short Volume 40%+ 117 14.5% 17.9% -3.4%p 9.3% —
More statistics
Base Rate
17.9%
Lift
-3.4%p
95% CI Lower
9.3%
Significance
—
Insider Purchase Recorded (90D) 28 ⚠low sample 10.7% 17.4% -6.7%p 3.7% —
More statistics
Base Rate
17.4%
Lift
-6.7%p
95% CI Lower
3.7%
Significance
—
Stage 2 Trend Template 3,796 14.8% 24.8% -9.9%p 13.7% —
More statistics
Base Rate
24.8%
Lift
-9.9%p
95% CI Lower
13.7%
Significance
—
3+ Day Signal Streak 3,734 14.0% 24.8% -10.8%p 12.9% —
More statistics
Base Rate
24.8%
Lift
-10.8%p
95% CI Lower
12.9%
Significance
—
Volume Spike, Flat Price 605 13.1% 24.8% -11.7%p 10.6% —
More statistics
Base Rate
24.8%
Lift
-11.7%p
95% CI Lower
10.6%
Significance
—
Chinese ADR 3 ⚠low sample 0.0% 16.3% -16.3%p 0.0% —
More statistics
Base Rate
16.3%
Lift
-16.3%p
95% CI Lower
0.0%
Significance
—
Weekly Tight Base 3+ Weeks 3,359 1.4% 24.8% -23.4%p 1.1% —
More statistics
Base Rate
24.8%
Lift
-23.4%p
95% CI Lower
1.1%
Significance
—
⚠low sample = fewer than 100 observations (reference only, greyed out). ✓Wilson = 95% confidence-interval lower bound exceeds the base rate · ✓BH = significant after multiple-comparison correction.

Methodology

  • Denominator = the entire liquid universe (price ≥ $0.5, daily dollar volume ≥ $500K) — not just scanner picks
  • Hit = entry-bar close to highest price within the next 20 trading days reaching +15% (uses intraday highs vs. a closing entry price, so it may differ from an actual fill)
  • Consecutive signals on the same stock are counted once per episode (21-day window — removes duplicate observations)
  • Delisted stocks are included (avoids survivorship bias) · Wilson 95% confidence intervals + Benjamini-Hochberg (FDR) multiple-comparison correction
  • Sample sizes differ by signal because collection start dates differ · past statistics do not guarantee future results · not investment advice

Signal-Search Program Conclusion (as of 2026-09-05)

Over 1 year 4 months and 14,260 episodes, we tested 50 signals and adopted zero. Our last hypothesis, a market-regime gate, reached a sample of 159 (risk-on) and 58 (neutral), but the 95% confidence interval contained the expected hit rate in both cases — statistically indistinguishable from chance. We publish this conclusion, the statistical-power math behind it, and why we keep running the scanner anyway in We Tested 50 Signals and Adopted Zero — Ending the Search.