A breakout to a new 52-week high keeps running
A new high is often viewed as evidence that demand has absorbed prior selling pressure.
Result
Volatility illusion — The observed move was consistent with volatility, without a clearer directional difference.
- Observed up-rate
- 52.3%
- Volatility-matched expected rate
- 51.2%
- 95% lift interval
- 1.00 ~ 1.05x
- Signals · symbols · dates
- 12,649 · 3,849 · 250
As of 2026-10-12 · Observed period 2025-09-29 to 2026-10-12
Source: DawnScan daily scan records and daily price records
Rule definition
An event is a close at or above the highest price of the prior 252 trading days (about one year).
Why people use this rule
A new high is often viewed as evidence that demand has absorbed prior selling pressure.
Results by market regime
| Regime | Cases | Observed | Expected | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 2,048 | 46.2% | 42.1% | No difference |
| Risk-off | 538 | 58.9% | 74.8% | Not enough data |
| Risk-on | 10,060 | 53.2% | 51.7% | No difference |
| Other | 3 | 33.3% | 76.3% | Not enough data |
Recent confirmed cases
| Date | Symbol | Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | ATKR | +0.1% Delisted (last recorded value) |
| 2026-10-08 | GREEL | +0.0% Delisted (last recorded value) |
| 2026-10-02 | TNK | -2.2% |
| 2026-10-02 | SMTC | -34.6% |
| 2026-10-01 | SCSC | -5.2% |
| 2026-10-01 | PAYS | -0.1% |
| 2026-10-01 | BST | -4.4% |
| 2026-10-01 | ASC | +10.6% |
| 2026-10-01 | APXT | +0.0% |
| 2026-09-29 | TACH | +0.3% |
| 2026-09-29 | RDVT | +2.4% |
| 2026-09-29 | CFFI | +9.5% |
| 2026-09-25 | IMAX | -4.8% |
| 2026-09-25 | EVAC | +0.3% |
| 2026-09-24 | PUBM | -7.4% |
| 2026-09-24 | LAFA | +0.1% |
| 2026-09-24 | BLFS | +0.1% Delisted (last recorded value) |
| 2026-09-22 | RSKD | +25.1% |
| 2026-09-22 | RNG | +2.4% |
| 2026-09-22 | HCAC | +0.1% |
| 2026-09-22 | HALO | +8.0% |
| 2026-09-22 | GTERA | +0.3% |
| 2026-09-22 | DT | +11.3% |
| 2026-09-21 | WBD | +0.5% Delisted (last recorded value) |
| 2026-09-21 | RMTI | -13.9% |
| 2026-09-21 | FNGO | -5.6% |
| 2026-09-18 | OPRT | +11.3% |
| 2026-09-18 | MG | +3.4% |
| 2026-09-18 | HNGE | +4.5% |
| 2026-09-18 | AVBC | -2.8% |
Method and limitations
Definition: An event is a close at or above the highest price of the prior 252 trading days (about one year).
Historical outcomes only. The sample may reflect a limited market regime. Results do not account for stops, position sizing, fees, or taxes.
Past data · not investment advice