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Testing popular trading rules

We take trading rules people repeat on forums and score them against DawnScan's nightly scan logs of ~6,000 US stocks, delisted stocks included. Each time a rule fired, we check whether the stock was up 20 trading days later, and compare that with stocks of similar volatility on the same day, not with the whole market. Otherwise volatile stocks look like winners just because they move more.

Rules and pass criteria were fixed before looking at results. A Benjamini–Hochberg correction is applied across all rules, and results are recalculated every Sunday. "Edge confirmed" requires both a higher up-rate and a mean excess return whose confidence interval stays above zero.

Summary · 24 rules · 377,194 cases

Results

RuleCasesUp after 20 days*Volatility-matched expectedVerdictAs of
A breakout to a new 52-week high keeps running 12,64952.3% 51.2% Volatility illusion2026-10-12
Deeply negative funding means a short squeeze is coming (crypto) 29136.4% 14.7% Volatility illusion2026-10-25
Gap-up breakouts are strong 9,03745.9% 46.8% Volatility illusion2026-10-19
When OBV leads higher, price follows 45,92247.2% 48.6% Volatility illusion2026-10-22
A pocket pivot is an institutional buy signal 41,71647.6% 49.0% Volatility illusion2026-10-22
An RS line hitting a new high first marks a market leader 9,31150.3% 50.1% Volatility illusion2026-10-09
Chase the big green candle on a volume spike 11,97441.5% 45.2% Volatility illusion2026-10-23
The first move up after a Bollinger squeeze starts a big run 29,97948.7% 49.3% No difference2026-10-22
When the 50-day crosses above the 200-day, it rises 50559.8% 54.8% No difference2026-10-02
When the CEO or CFO buys their own stock, it goes up 83757.1% 53.0% No difference2026-07-20
Stocks near their 52-week high outperform 23,59754.1% 52.7% No difference2026-10-08
Big volume with a flat price is quiet accumulation 6,63853.9% 50.2% No difference2026-10-23
Holding the open of a record-volume candle means it goes up 6,65548.3% 48.8% No difference2026-10-16
Top-20% relative-strength leaders outperform 10,63844.9% 47.4% No difference2026-10-23
Bullish RSI divergence is a reversal signal 15,63050.0% 50.1% No difference2026-10-02
RSI below 30 is the bottom — buy and it bounces 9,87150.1% 49.7% No difference2026-10-16
High short interest leads to a short squeeze 4,28347.9% 48.9% No difference2026-09-29
Heavy short-sale volume leads to a squeeze 16,77239.5% 40.2% No difference2026-10-19
Stocks in a Stage 2 uptrend above the 200-day do better 6,01940.7% 41.1% No difference2026-10-22
A stochastic turn up from oversold means a bounce 35,96149.0% 48.5% No difference2026-10-09
Down 20%+ in 5 days means oversold — it bounces 6,18238.6% 41.8% Worse than baseline2026-10-20
A MACD golden cross is a buy signal 24,64551.8% 52.9% Worse than baseline2026-10-12
Penny stocks under $5 run harder 15,85738.6% 42.8% Worse than baseline2026-10-22
Tight weekly closes lead to a big move 32,22548.9% 49.6% Worse than baseline2026-10-22

* For the crypto rule, a hit means +10% within 24 hours on Upbit KRW markets. Each result links to an English detail page and a Korean write-up.

Limitations

Past data · not investment advice