Gap-up breakouts are strong
A gap above a prior range is often interpreted as a sudden change in demand.
Result
Volatility illusion — The observed move was consistent with volatility, without a clearer directional difference.
- Observed up-rate
- 45.9%
- Volatility-matched expected rate
- 46.8%
- 95% lift interval
- 0.93 ~ 1.03x
- Signals · symbols · dates
- 9,037 · 4,136 · 256
As of 2026-10-19 · Observed period 2025-09-29 to 2026-10-19
Source: DawnScan daily scan records and daily price records
Rule definition
An event is a day that opened at least 2% above the prior close, with that open at or above the prior 20-day high.
Why people use this rule
A gap above a prior range is often interpreted as a sudden change in demand.
Results by market regime
| Regime | Cases | Observed | Expected | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 2,354 | 53.4% | 49.5% | No difference |
| Risk-off | 286 | 55.6% | 67.8% | Not enough data |
| Risk-on | 6,324 | 42.8% | 44.8% | Volatility illusion |
| Other | 73 | 37.0% | 50.6% | Not enough data |
Recent confirmed cases
| Date | Symbol | Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-19 | PERF | +0.5% Delisted (last recorded value) |
| 2026-10-13 | ATIIU | -30.6% Delisted (last recorded value) |
| 2026-10-02 | ZCMD | -44.9% |
| 2026-10-02 | XRPNU | -50.5% Delisted (last recorded value) |
| 2026-10-02 | XRPN | -64.0% |
| 2026-10-02 | WTBA | -0.6% |
| 2026-10-02 | WOLF | -37.7% |
| 2026-10-02 | VSH | -30.0% |
| 2026-10-02 | VPG | -31.0% |
| 2026-10-02 | VLN | -20.9% |
| 2026-10-02 | TXN | +2.4% |
| 2026-10-02 | SYNA | -2.7% |
| 2026-10-02 | SILC | -44.1% |
| 2026-10-02 | SES | -10.7% |
| 2026-10-02 | RXO | +17.6% |
| 2026-10-02 | RMBS | -24.4% |
| 2026-10-02 | QTEX | +10.9% |
| 2026-10-02 | Q | -11.3% |
| 2026-10-02 | PLAB | -12.4% |
| 2026-10-02 | PI | -5.2% |
| 2026-10-02 | PEB | +13.0% |
| 2026-10-02 | ON | -15.6% |
| 2026-10-02 | NXPI | +6.5% |
| 2026-10-02 | NVT | -25.7% |
| 2026-10-02 | NVMI | -21.2% |
| 2026-10-02 | NVDA | -12.5% |
| 2026-10-02 | MTSI | -27.1% |
| 2026-10-02 | MTRN | -28.9% |
| 2026-10-02 | MRVL | -27.9% |
| 2026-10-02 | MPWR | -15.8% |
Method and limitations
Definition: An event is a day that opened at least 2% above the prior close, with that open at or above the prior 20-day high.
Historical outcomes only. The sample may reflect a limited market regime. Results do not account for stops, position sizing, fees, or taxes.
Past data · not investment advice