When the 50-day crosses above the 200-day, it rises
The crossover is often used as a summary of a shorter average moving above a longer average.
Result
No difference — The test did not establish a difference from the matched baseline.
- Observed up-rate
- 59.8%
- Volatility-matched expected rate
- 54.8%
- 95% lift interval
- 1.02 ~ 1.16x
- Signals · symbols · dates
- 505 · 503 · 43
As of 2026-10-02 · Observed period 2026-04-22 to 2026-10-02
Source: DawnScan daily scan records and daily price records
Rule definition
An event is a day on which the 50-day average moved from at or below the 200-day average to above it.
Why people use this rule
The crossover is often used as a summary of a shorter average moving above a longer average.
Results by market regime
| Regime | Cases | Observed | Expected | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 1 | 0.0% | 28.9% | Not enough data |
| Risk-on | 504 | 59.9% | 54.9% | No difference |
Verdict history
Solid line: observed rate · dashed line: volatility-matched expected rate.
Recent confirmed cases
| Date | Symbol | Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | NCPL | +13.6% |
| 2026-10-02 | MNDY | +21.3% |
| 2026-10-02 | FLGT | -4.0% |
| 2026-10-02 | AMPH | +9.0% |
| 2026-09-18 | CLF | -3.0% |
| 2026-07-07 | YHC | -50.5% |
| 2026-06-23 | HAPN | -0.8% |
| 2026-06-16 | XOS | -35.0% |
| 2026-06-16 | WSM | +0.2% |
| 2026-06-16 | TTAM | +1.0% |
| 2026-06-16 | TILE | +7.7% |
| 2026-06-16 | RHI | +27.8% |
| 2026-06-16 | PDM | +7.3% |
| 2026-06-16 | MED | -6.8% |
| 2026-06-16 | LFMD | -6.6% |
| 2026-06-16 | KELYA | +34.6% |
| 2026-06-16 | FLWS | -4.4% |
| 2026-06-16 | COOK | +2.8% |
| 2026-06-16 | BZH | +22.3% |
| 2026-06-16 | BNT | -2.7% |
| 2026-06-16 | BLZE | +65.6% |
| 2026-06-15 | UHAL | +11.7% |
| 2026-06-15 | TRON | -20.0% |
| 2026-06-15 | SRI | -4.8% |
| 2026-06-15 | RSKD | +4.0% |
| 2026-06-15 | QTEX | -35.5% |
| 2026-06-15 | QH | -22.6% |
| 2026-06-15 | NWSA | +8.9% |
| 2026-06-15 | NUTX | +19.7% |
| 2026-06-15 | MRDN | +0.2% |
Method and limitations
Definition: An event is a day on which the 50-day average moved from at or below the 200-day average to above it.
Historical outcomes only. The sample may reflect a limited market regime. Results do not account for stops, position sizing, fees, or taxes.
Past data · not investment advice