A MACD golden cross is a buy signal
A crossover is often read as a change in momentum after a weaker period.
Result
Worse than baseline — The observed result was below the matched baseline.
- Observed up-rate
- 51.8%
- Volatility-matched expected rate
- 52.9%
- 95% lift interval
- 0.96 ~ 1.00x
- Signals · symbols · dates
- 24,645 · 5,203 · 254
As of 2026-10-12 · Observed period 2025-09-29 to 2026-10-12
Source: DawnScan daily scan records and daily price records
Rule definition
An event is a day on which the MACD line crossed above its signal line (the histogram turned from negative to zero or above).
Why people use this rule
A crossover is often read as a change in momentum after a weaker period.
Results by market regime
| Regime | Cases | Observed | Expected | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 3,724 | 45.4% | 45.1% | No difference |
| Risk-off | 3,115 | 75.1% | 74.9% | Not enough data |
| Risk-on | 17,795 | 49.1% | 50.7% | Worse than baseline |
| Other | 11 | 36.4% | 58.7% | Not enough data |
Recent confirmed cases
| Date | Symbol | Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | PERF | +2.6% Delisted (last recorded value) |
| 2026-10-02 | ULH | +22.4% |
| 2026-10-02 | PI | -5.2% |
| 2026-10-02 | CURV | -2.4% |
| 2026-10-02 | CCII | +0.3% |
| 2026-10-02 | APXT | +0.0% |
| 2026-10-01 | SCSC | -5.2% |
| 2026-10-01 | RBKB | -0.5% |
| 2026-10-01 | PAYS | -0.1% |
| 2026-10-01 | LOGI | -4.2% |
| 2026-10-01 | CHEF | -9.8% |
| 2026-10-01 | ASC | +10.6% |
| 2026-10-01 | ALRM | +21.3% |
| 2026-09-30 | STK | +1.9% |
| 2026-09-30 | SCYX | -20.0% |
| 2026-09-30 | ORN | -2.9% |
| 2026-09-30 | IAE | -21.1% Delisted (last recorded value) |
| 2026-09-30 | HKD | -3.4% |
| 2026-09-30 | DPRO | -40.0% |
| 2026-09-30 | CFFI | +12.0% |
| 2026-09-29 | WING | +13.7% |
| 2026-09-29 | TACH | +0.3% |
| 2026-09-29 | NEXR | -69.0% |
| 2026-09-29 | CHRW | -4.1% |
| 2026-09-29 | BZFD | -19.7% |
| 2026-09-29 | BDL | +10.8% |
| 2026-09-28 | VMI | -8.4% |
| 2026-09-28 | SEER | -4.9% |
| 2026-09-28 | NEU | -3.8% |
| 2026-09-25 | VFF | -18.8% |
Method and limitations
Definition: An event is a day on which the MACD line crossed above its signal line (the histogram turned from negative to zero or above).
Historical outcomes only. The sample may reflect a limited market regime. Results do not account for stops, position sizing, fees, or taxes.
Past data · not investment advice