When OBV leads higher, price follows
Rising On-Balance Volume is often interpreted as buying activity building beneath the price.
Result
Volatility illusion — The observed move was consistent with volatility, without a clearer directional difference.
- Observed up-rate
- 47.2%
- Volatility-matched expected rate
- 48.6%
- 95% lift interval
- 0.96 ~ 0.98x
- Signals · symbols · dates
- 45,922 · 5,832 · 262
As of 2026-10-22 · Observed period 2025-09-29 to 2026-10-22
Source: DawnScan daily scan records and daily price records
Rule definition
An event is a 20-day net rise in On-Balance Volume larger than 12% of total volume over the same 20 days.
Why people use this rule
Rising On-Balance Volume is often interpreted as buying activity building beneath the price.
Results by market regime
| Regime | Cases | Observed | Expected | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 9,246 | 40.8% | 41.7% | No difference |
| Risk-off | 2,350 | 63.1% | 71.4% | Not enough data |
| Risk-on | 33,827 | 47.8% | 48.8% | Volatility illusion |
| Other | 499 | 49.9% | 56.8% | Not enough data |
Recent confirmed cases
| Date | Symbol | Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | VSME | +28.1% Delisted (last recorded value) |
| 2026-10-14 | ACA | +1.4% Delisted (last recorded value) |
| 2026-10-13 | ATIIU | -30.6% Delisted (last recorded value) |
| 2026-10-12 | PERF | +2.6% Delisted (last recorded value) |
| 2026-10-12 | ATII | -8.3% Delisted (last recorded value) |
| 2026-10-09 | QETA | -31.1% Delisted (last recorded value) |
| 2026-10-07 | SKK | +19.7% Delisted (last recorded value) |
| 2026-10-07 | QETAU | -26.1% Delisted (last recorded value) |
| 2026-10-06 | NATH | +0.2% Delisted (last recorded value) |
| 2026-10-02 | ZNB | -71.5% |
| 2026-10-02 | YYAI | -32.9% |
| 2026-10-02 | XRPNU | -50.5% Delisted (last recorded value) |
| 2026-10-02 | WHG | -3.9% |
| 2026-10-02 | VXX | +10.4% |
| 2026-10-02 | VRSN | +6.6% |
| 2026-10-02 | VLN | -20.9% |
| 2026-10-02 | VEON | +9.1% |
| 2026-10-02 | UFPT | -5.4% |
| 2026-10-02 | TNMG | -18.3% |
| 2026-10-02 | TK | +0.1% |
| 2026-10-02 | TENX | -9.6% |
| 2026-10-02 | TBCH | +14.7% |
| 2026-10-02 | SPG | +8.4% |
| 2026-10-02 | SORA | +9.9% |
| 2026-10-02 | SKYQ | -9.3% |
| 2026-10-02 | SKHY | -23.5% |
| 2026-10-02 | RVMD | -7.4% |
| 2026-10-02 | RGC | -1.6% |
| 2026-10-02 | REX | -9.5% |
| 2026-10-02 | REBN | -27.1% |
Method and limitations
Definition: An event is a 20-day net rise in On-Balance Volume larger than 12% of total volume over the same 20 days.
Historical outcomes only. The sample may reflect a limited market regime. Results do not account for stops, position sizing, fees, or taxes.
Past data · not investment advice