Stocks in a Stage 2 uptrend above the 200-day do better
A sustained position above a long-term average is often viewed as evidence of a persistent uptrend.
Result
No difference — The test did not establish a difference from the matched baseline.
- Observed up-rate
- 40.7%
- Volatility-matched expected rate
- 41.1%
- 95% lift interval
- 0.93 ~ 1.12x
- Signals · symbols · dates
- 6,019 · 2,146 · 67
As of 2026-10-22 · Observed period 2026-07-06 to 2026-10-16
Source: DawnScan daily scan records and daily price records
Rule definition
An event is a stock meeting every condition of the Stage 2 trend template (price above rising long-term averages, with the averages in uptrend order).
Why people use this rule
A sustained position above a long-term average is often viewed as evidence of a persistent uptrend.
Results by market regime
| Regime | Cases | Observed | Expected | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 1,371 | 32.6% | 27.9% | No difference |
| Risk-on | 4,648 | 43.0% | 45.0% | No difference |
Recent confirmed cases
| Date | Symbol | Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | WEAV | +0.0% Delisted (last recorded value) |
| 2026-10-09 | QETA | -31.1% Delisted (last recorded value) |
| 2026-10-09 | BZH | +0.2% Delisted (last recorded value) |
| 2026-10-09 | ATKR | +0.1% Delisted (last recorded value) |
| 2026-10-09 | ACA | +1.3% Delisted (last recorded value) |
| 2026-10-08 | GREEL | +0.0% Delisted (last recorded value) |
| 2026-10-07 | QETAU | -26.1% Delisted (last recorded value) |
| 2026-10-02 | XRPNU | -50.5% Delisted (last recorded value) |
| 2026-10-02 | WRBY | -9.0% |
| 2026-10-02 | WOR | +3.4% |
| 2026-10-02 | WHG | -3.9% |
| 2026-10-02 | VRNS | +2.7% |
| 2026-10-02 | USFD | +6.9% |
| 2026-10-02 | TRLV | -4.1% |
| 2026-10-02 | TKR | -9.4% |
| 2026-10-02 | SYNA | -2.7% |
| 2026-10-02 | SWBI | -10.0% |
| 2026-10-02 | ST | -7.4% |
| 2026-10-02 | SG | +21.6% |
| 2026-10-02 | RXO | +17.6% |
| 2026-10-02 | RRGB | +14.6% |
| 2026-10-02 | PGNY | +15.7% |
| 2026-10-02 | PENG | -15.4% |
| 2026-10-02 | NET | -19.6% |
| 2026-10-02 | MXL | -36.3% |
| 2026-10-02 | MUR | +16.7% |
| 2026-10-02 | MTSI | -27.1% |
| 2026-10-02 | MTLS | -15.5% |
| 2026-10-02 | MCHP | -4.9% |
| 2026-10-02 | M | +6.1% |
Method and limitations
Definition: An event is a stock meeting every condition of the Stage 2 trend template (price above rising long-term averages, with the averages in uptrend order).
Historical outcomes only. The sample may reflect a limited market regime. Results do not account for stops, position sizing, fees, or taxes.
Past data · not investment advice