Chase the big green candle on a volume spike
A rising session with unusually high volume is often treated as stronger participation.
Result
Volatility illusion — The observed move was consistent with volatility, without a clearer directional difference.
- Observed up-rate
- 41.5%
- Volatility-matched expected rate
- 45.2%
- 95% lift interval
- 0.89 ~ 0.94x
- Signals · symbols · dates
- 11,974 · 4,584 · 260
As of 2026-10-23 · Observed period 2025-09-29 to 2026-10-15
Source: DawnScan daily scan records and daily price records
Rule definition
An event is a day with volume at least three times its 20-day average and a close above the prior close.
Why people use this rule
A rising session with unusually high volume is often treated as stronger participation.
Results by market regime
| Regime | Cases | Observed | Expected | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 2,364 | 40.0% | 41.2% | No difference |
| Risk-off | 767 | 58.1% | 69.2% | Not enough data |
| Risk-on | 8,616 | 40.0% | 44.0% | Volatility illusion |
| Other | 227 | 55.1% | 51.8% | Not enough data |
Verdict history
Solid line: observed rate · dashed line: volatility-matched expected rate.
Recent confirmed cases
| Date | Symbol | Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | BZH | +0.2% Delisted (last recorded value) |
| 2026-10-13 | ATIIU | -30.6% Delisted (last recorded value) |
| 2026-10-12 | PERF | +2.6% Delisted (last recorded value) |
| 2026-10-09 | QETA | -31.1% Delisted (last recorded value) |
| 2026-10-07 | SKK | +19.7% Delisted (last recorded value) |
| 2026-10-07 | QETAU | -26.1% Delisted (last recorded value) |
| 2026-10-02 | ZNB | -71.5% |
| 2026-10-02 | YB | -13.4% |
| 2026-10-02 | XRPNU | -50.5% Delisted (last recorded value) |
| 2026-10-02 | WHG | -3.9% |
| 2026-10-02 | TBCH | +14.7% |
| 2026-10-02 | SYNA | -2.7% |
| 2026-10-02 | STFS | +33.7% |
| 2026-10-02 | SMTK | -83.2% |
| 2026-10-02 | PMI | +44.5% |
| 2026-10-02 | OCG | -7.5% |
| 2026-10-02 | NHPBP | +0.0% Delisted (last recorded value) |
| 2026-10-02 | NAUT | +39.3% |
| 2026-10-02 | NAGE | -16.5% |
| 2026-10-02 | ICU | -52.2% |
| 2026-10-02 | GIFT | +20.7% |
| 2026-10-02 | FLUX | -32.8% |
| 2026-10-02 | CYCU | -37.2% |
| 2026-10-02 | CABO | -55.3% |
| 2026-10-02 | AZTA | +0.8% |
| 2026-10-02 | AMOD | -67.9% |
| 2026-10-02 | AIXI | +51.9% |
| 2026-10-01 | WNC | +6.4% |
| 2026-10-01 | WIT | +19.9% |
| 2026-10-01 | WFCF | +27.0% |
Method and limitations
Definition: An event is a day with volume at least three times its 20-day average and a close above the prior close.
Historical outcomes only. The sample may reflect a limited market regime. Results do not account for stops, position sizing, fees, or taxes.
Past data · not investment advice