Down 20%+ in 5 days means oversold — it bounces
A steep short-term decline is often described as oversold, which can lead people to expect a bounce.
Result
Worse than baseline — The observed result was below the matched baseline.
- Observed up-rate
- 38.6%
- Volatility-matched expected rate
- 41.8%
- 95% lift interval
- 0.88 ~ 0.96x
- Signals · symbols · dates
- 6,182 · 2,484 · 254
As of 2026-10-20 · Observed period 2025-09-29 to 2026-10-20
Source: DawnScan daily scan records and daily price records
Rule definition
An event is a stock that fell 20% or more over five trading days.
Why people use this rule
A steep short-term decline is often described as oversold, which can lead people to expect a bounce.
Results by market regime
| Regime | Cases | Observed | Expected | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 1,410 | 45.0% | 46.9% | No difference |
| Risk-off | 461 | 57.0% | 64.5% | Not enough data |
| Risk-on | 4,288 | 34.5% | 37.7% | Worse than baseline |
| Other | 23 | 39.1% | 31.8% | Not enough data |
Recent confirmed cases
| Date | Symbol | Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-20 | ATII | +36.8% Delisted (last recorded value) |
| 2026-10-02 | SVRN | -18.5% |
| 2026-10-02 | SHFS | -94.7% |
| 2026-10-02 | NBTX | +21.8% |
| 2026-10-02 | IART | +0.6% |
| 2026-10-02 | GPCR | -21.0% |
| 2026-10-02 | GLND | -17.2% |
| 2026-10-02 | FHTX | +3.0% |
| 2026-10-02 | ECX | +4.3% |
| 2026-10-02 | CDT | -93.1% |
| 2026-10-02 | AVXL | -34.6% |
| 2026-10-02 | ASTI | -32.0% |
| 2026-10-02 | AIFF | -26.5% |
| 2026-10-01 | WCT | -81.4% |
| 2026-10-01 | VIVO | -17.5% |
| 2026-10-01 | VERI | -10.5% |
| 2026-10-01 | VEEE | -16.0% |
| 2026-10-01 | VBIO | -75.4% |
| 2026-10-01 | TMCR | -38.2% |
| 2026-10-01 | STKH | -43.1% |
| 2026-10-01 | STIM | +7.2% |
| 2026-10-01 | PMAX | -48.2% |
| 2026-10-01 | NKTR | -16.6% |
| 2026-10-01 | LUCD | -31.9% |
| 2026-10-01 | LRHC | -58.8% Delisted (last recorded value) |
| 2026-10-01 | INTG | +39.7% |
| 2026-10-01 | FTCI | -36.3% |
| 2026-10-01 | ELAB | -18.1% |
| 2026-10-01 | CYPH | +13.4% |
| 2026-10-01 | CUE | -15.0% |
Method and limitations
Definition: An event is a stock that fell 20% or more over five trading days.
Historical outcomes only. The sample may reflect a limited market regime. Results do not account for stops, position sizing, fees, or taxes.
Past data · not investment advice