Deeply negative funding means a short squeeze is coming (crypto)
Negative funding is often interpreted as crowded short positioning in perpetual markets.
Result
Volatility illusion — The observed move was consistent with volatility, without a clearer directional difference.
- Observed up-rate
- 36.4%
- Volatility-matched expected rate
- 14.7%
- 95% lift interval
- 2.04 ~ 2.92x
- Signals · symbols · dates
- 291 · 99 · 78
As of 2026-10-25 · Observed period 2026-08-08 to 2026-10-25
Source: Upbit KRW hourly records (24-hour observation; delisted assets included)
Rule definition
An event is a perpetual-futures funding rate at or below -0.1%; the outcome is a 10% rise within 24 hours on Upbit KRW markets.
Why people use this rule
Negative funding is often interpreted as crowded short positioning in perpetual markets.
Results by market regime
| Regime | Cases | Observed | Expected | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin down | 1 | 0.0% | 7.5% | Not enough data |
| Neutral | 229 | 37.6% | 12.8% | Volatility illusion |
| Bitcoin up | 61 | 32.8% | 21.9% | Not enough data |
Verdict history
Solid line: observed rate · dashed line: volatility-matched expected rate.
Recent confirmed cases
Times are shown in Korea Standard Time (KST).
| Date | Symbol | Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| 10-25 03:00 | KRW-BMT | +10% within 24 hours |
| 10-25 01:00 | KRW-T | No +10% hit |
| 10-25 01:00 | KRW-STEEM | +10% within 24 hours |
| 10-25 01:00 | KRW-MTL | +10% within 24 hours |
| 10-24 16:00 | KRW-ANIME | +10% within 24 hours |
| 10-24 12:00 | KRW-ZKC | No +10% hit |
| 10-24 12:00 | KRW-WCT | No +10% hit |
| 10-24 12:00 | KRW-KAT | +10% within 24 hours |
| 10-24 11:00 | KRW-NEWT | No +10% hit |
| 10-24 10:00 | KRW-ZORA | +10% within 24 hours |
| 10-24 10:00 | KRW-TRUST | +10% within 24 hours |
| 10-24 10:00 | KRW-KERNEL | +10% within 24 hours |
| 10-24 09:00 | KRW-TREE | +10% within 24 hours |
| 10-24 09:00 | KRW-ORDER | +10% within 24 hours |
| 10-24 06:00 | KRW-LA | +10% within 24 hours |
| 10-24 03:00 | KRW-BIRB | +10% within 24 hours |
| 10-23 23:00 | KRW-IN | +10% within 24 hours |
| 10-23 13:00 | KRW-SOPH | No +10% hit |
| 10-23 10:00 | KRW-GTC | No +10% hit |
| 10-23 10:00 | KRW-CT | No +10% hit |
| 10-23 10:00 | KRW-ARK | +10% within 24 hours |
| 10-23 08:00 | KRW-ERA | +10% within 24 hours |
| 10-22 15:00 | KRW-ALT | +10% within 24 hours |
| 10-22 04:00 | KRW-BLUR | +10% within 24 hours |
| 10-21 14:00 | KRW-W | No +10% hit |
| 10-21 11:00 | KRW-DOOD | +10% within 24 hours |
| 10-21 06:00 | KRW-IOST | No +10% hit |
| 10-21 02:00 | KRW-BIRB | No +10% hit |
| 10-21 00:00 | KRW-MEW | +10% within 24 hours |
| 10-20 12:00 | KRW-SOPH | +10% within 24 hours |
Method and limitations
Definition: An event is a perpetual-futures funding rate at or below -0.1%; the outcome is a 10% rise within 24 hours on Upbit KRW markets.
Historical outcomes only. The sample may reflect a limited market regime. Results do not account for stops, position sizing, fees, or taxes.
Past data · not investment advice