Does "When the CEO or CFO buys their own stock, it goes up" Work? 837 Signals Tested

People may view an insider purchase as a sign that company leadership sees value in its own shares.

Result

No difference — The test did not establish a difference from the matched baseline.

As of 2026-07-20 · Observed period 2025-09-29 to 2026-07-01

Source: SEC Form 4 filings and daily price records

An event is a Form 4 filing in which an officer whose title includes CEO or CFO bought shares on the open market (transaction code P).

People may view an insider purchase as a sign that company leadership sees value in its own shares.

Regime	Cases	Observed	Expected	Verdict
Neutral	182	47.3%	47.3%	No difference
Risk-off	101	77.2%	69.8%	Not enough data
Risk-on	542	56.3%	51.9%	Edge confirmed
Other	12	75.0%	51.3%	Not enough data

Definition: An event is a Form 4 filing in which an officer whose title includes CEO or CFO bought shares on the open market (transaction code P).

Historical outcomes only. The sample may reflect a limited market regime. Results do not account for stops, position sizing, fees, or taxes.

Past data · not investment advice