RSI below 30 is the bottom — buy and it bounces
A low RSI is often associated with a recent, unusually sharp decline that some expect to reverse.
Result
No difference — The test did not establish a difference from the matched baseline.
- Observed up-rate
- 50.1%
- Volatility-matched expected rate
- 49.7%
- 95% lift interval
- 0.98 ~ 1.04x
- Signals · symbols · dates
- 9,871 · 4,223 · 255
As of 2026-10-16 · Observed period 2025-09-29 to 2026-10-14
Source: DawnScan daily scan records and daily price records
Rule definition
An event is a trading day on which RSI closed below 30.
Why people use this rule
A low RSI is often associated with a recent, unusually sharp decline that some expect to reverse.
Results by market regime
| Regime | Cases | Observed | Expected | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 2,622 | 44.2% | 45.3% | No difference |
| Risk-off | 1,259 | 79.7% | 74.7% | Not enough data |
| Risk-on | 5,925 | 46.1% | 46.2% | No difference |
| Other | 65 | 72.3% | 56.3% | Not enough data |
Recent confirmed cases
| Date | Symbol | Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-14 | ATII | -2.5% Delisted (last recorded value) |
| 2026-10-09 | IAE | -1.7% Delisted (last recorded value) |
| 2026-10-02 | WY | +10.2% |
| 2026-10-02 | WOOF | +19.2% |
| 2026-10-02 | WEN | +17.8% |
| 2026-10-02 | VMO | +6.7% |
| 2026-10-02 | VKQ | +5.6% |
| 2026-10-02 | VICI | +8.0% |
| 2026-10-02 | VGM | +5.6% |
| 2026-10-02 | UNF | +1.2% |
| 2026-10-02 | UE | +1.2% |
| 2026-10-02 | TU | +10.3% |
| 2026-10-02 | TRDA | -15.7% |
| 2026-10-02 | TIGR | -7.0% |
| 2026-10-02 | THW | +4.2% |
| 2026-10-02 | TDOC | +54.2% |
| 2026-10-02 | TBLD | +1.1% |
| 2026-10-02 | STRO | -40.7% |
| 2026-10-02 | STIM | +4.2% |
| 2026-10-02 | STI | -24.3% |
| 2026-10-02 | SPB | +6.5% |
| 2026-10-02 | SLDB | -9.5% |
| 2026-10-02 | SKYH | +6.5% |
| 2026-10-02 | SEV | -0.3% |
| 2026-10-02 | RYTM | -0.3% |
| 2026-10-02 | RYAM | -7.2% |
| 2026-10-02 | RTO | +16.9% |
| 2026-10-02 | RLMD | -0.6% |
| 2026-10-02 | RERE | +7.1% |
| 2026-10-02 | RA | +1.2% |
Method and limitations
Definition: An event is a trading day on which RSI closed below 30.
Historical outcomes only. The sample may reflect a limited market regime. Results do not account for stops, position sizing, fees, or taxes.
Past data · not investment advice